Sunday, January 23, 2011


It has become fashionable, of late, to wonder out loud and in detail about what would happen in Cuba once the regime changed.

Of course, gazing into the future requires an analysis of the past and the present.

One of the most compelling of such analyses is a book written by Jose Azel and entitled “Mañana in Cuba”. Dr. Azel is well qualified to speak on the topic. He is currently a Senior Scholar at the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami.

I found the following passage in his book most telling:

“Unfortunately, the Cuban transition to democracy and free markets is highly unlikely to follow the path of some of the most successful Eastern European countries that faced similar, but not identical challenges. Cuba´s post-Castro interregnum [...a period of discontinuity of government organization or social order...] will be, arguably, the most critical period in the nation’s history. It will be a period during which inexperienced post-Castro leaders will face myriad social, political and economic policy decisions. Unseasoned leaders will need to make strategic, tactical and operational policy choices that will impact not only the existing circumstances, but the nation’s immediate and long-term future. And, in all probability, this will have to take place in an environment of socio-political and economic disarray and confusion, if not outright chaos.” (Italics mine).

Will Uncle Sam just stand or will he interfere?

Your guess is as good as mine.

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